.png)
Armenia is in the midst of growing geopolitical tensions as well as significant threats to its religious and cultural history and identity. Among these challenges is the relatively longstanding alliance with Russia, which is now facing the very real reality of coming to an end.
The recent invasion of Armenian territory by Azerbaijan has not only ignited fears of renewed conflict but has also exposed a glaring gap in the security assurances provided by Russia to Armenia. The failure of Russia to swiftly intervene and protect Armenian sovereignty has led to a rapid deterioration in the once-strong relationship between the two nations.
For Armenia, the invasion by Azerbaijan is not merely a territorial incursion but a direct assault on its national integrity and the safety of its people. The scars of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which erupted into another season of full-scale war in 2020 and culminated in the blockade and additional invasion in 2023 that led to significant loss of life, as well as the displacement of 120,000 ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, showed Yerevan the lack of Russian commitment to Armenian security.
With the embarrassing lack of response from Moscow falling short of Armenian expectations, Yerevan is left in a difficult position seeking closer ties in the West. In addition to public remarks about ending the Russian partnership, Yerevan has moved to dismantle the longstanding defense agreement that included Russian security at Armenian airports. Armenia removed Russian security from the airports and hosted delegations from Europe as well as made clear public outreach to the West including potentially seeking EU membership.
At the same time, the deteriorating relations between Armenia and Russia have broader implications for regional stability. The South Caucasus has long been a volatile tinderbox, with competing interests and historical grievances often leading to conflict. The fracture in the Armenian-Russian alliance risks further destabilizing an already precarious situation, opening the door to greater geopolitical maneuvering and potential escalation.
The escalating tensions need the intentional engagement of a strong third-party power such at the United States and Europe to primarily guarantee Armenian regional sovereignty and restrain Baku through economic and strong diplomatic measures. The West cannot allow another region within the sphere of Russian influence to deteriorate to a full-scale war. The West has a unique opportunity to de-escalate the situation and hold Baku accountable for its egregious human rights violations in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, Russia finds itself grappling with its geopolitical calculations. Balancing its interests in the South Caucasus, including maintaining influence in Armenia while managing its relationship with Azerbaijan, presents a delicate diplomatic challenge for Moscow. The fallout from the recent events has underscored the complexities and weaknesses of Russia's role as a regional powerbroker and the limitations of its ability to guarantee security for its allies.
As tensions simmer and uncertainties loom, the future of Armenian-Russian relations hangs in the balance. The events of recent weeks have laid bare the vulnerabilities of Armenia's strategic position and tested the resilience of its alliance with Russia. This rupture marks the end of the status quo and sets the stage for a fundamental realignment in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus.
